Every year, brands like Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet announce new models, updates and discontinuations. If you own a luxury watch and you’re thinking about selling, those announcements can have a real impact on what your timepiece is worth.
The answer to whether you should sell before or after depends on what you own, what the brand does with it and how the secondary market reacts. To understand how prices fluctuate around new model releases, we need to examine a few factors first…
What Happens to Resale Values When a New Model Launches
When a brand releases an updated version of a popular watch, the effect on the outgoing model isn’t always obvious or easy to predict. Sometimes the predecessor drops in value because buyers shift their attention to the newer version. Other times, the older reference becomes more desirable, especially if collectors prefer its design over the replacement.
Take the Rolex Submariner. When Rolex retired the green-dialled “Hulk” (ref. 116610LV) in 2020, prices climbed immediately and have continued to rise. The replacement was well received, but it was a different watch, and the Hulk became a closed chapter. That scarcity drove demand.
Not every model update has this effect. When a brand makes a minor dial tweak or swaps a bracelet clasp, the outgoing version rarely sees a significant price bump. The references that appreciate are the ones with a distinctive visual identity that the new model doesn’t carry forward.
Why Discontinued Watches Often Rise in Value
A confirmed discontinuation is one of the strongest signals in the pre-owned watch market. Once a reference leaves production, its supply is permanently fixed. Collectors who had been on the fence tend to act quickly once they realise the window is closing.
This pattern played out at Watches & Wonders 2026, where Rolex quietly removed the GMT-Master II “Pepsi”(ref. 126710BLRO) from its catalogue. Secondary market prices had already been climbing in the weeks before, driven by speculation. Once the discontinuation was confirmed, the watch moved from around £20,000 to well above £25,000.
If you own a watch that’s rumoured to be leaving production, selling after the discontinuation is confirmed will usually get you a better price. But if you wait too long after the initial spike, prices can settle back slightly before resuming a slower upward trend.
When It Makes Sense to Sell Before a New Release
There are situations where selling before a new model drops is actually the smarter move. If the brand is expected to release a significantly improved version of your watch, the older model could lose appeal overnight.
This tends to happen with watches that were already trading close to or below their original retail price. A new, more attractive version pushes buyers towards the updated model, and the outgoing reference can slip further. If your watch doesn’t have a strong collector following or a distinctive design, you might get a better return by selling sooner.
If you’re already planning to sell and the market is healthy, waiting for a new release that could work against you isn’t always the best strategy.
How Market Cycles and Trade Shows Affect Your Timing
New model releases don’t happen in a vacuum. The wider pre-owned market has its own rhythm, and where it sits when a brand makes an announcement will affect how much your watch is worth. After the pandemic-era price surge peaked in early 2022, values corrected significantly. By 2025, the market stabilised, and in 2026 buyers are more selective. They’re paying premiums for complete sets in excellent condition, not chasing hype.
The annual Watches & Wonders trade show in Geneva each spring is the single biggest event for new announcements. It’s where brands update collections and quietly retire references. For sellers, the weeks before and after the show are some of the most active in the secondary market. Speculation drives prices up on models rumoured to be discontinued, and confirmed changes trigger a wave of buying and selling.
If you’re planning to sell, it’s worth following industry news and dealer chatter in the months before the show. That said, rumours don’t always pan out, so basing your decision entirely on speculation certainly carries some risk.
How to Decide What’s Right for Your Watch
If your watch is a popular reference from a brand like Rolex, Patek Philippe or Audemars Piguet, and there’s talk of it being discontinued, holding until the discontinuation is confirmed will typically work in your favour. The supply squeeze that follows usually pushes prices higher.
If your watch is a mid-range model that’s likely to be replaced with something better, selling before the announcement could help you maximise its value while there’s still strong demand. Once a shinier replacement appears, buyers tend to move on quickly.
If you’re unsure, getting a professional valuation from an experienced dealer will certainly give you a clearer picture. A good buyer will know the current market data for your specific reference and can advise on whether now is the right time to sell.
Condition and Documentation Still Matter
Regardless of when you sell relative to a new release, condition and completeness will always have the biggest impact on what you’re offered. A watch with its original box, warranty card and documented service history will consistently fetch more than the same model without paperwork.
It’s also worth resisting the urge to have your watch polished before selling. Many collectors and professional watch buyers actually prefer unpolished cases with sharp, original lines. A local polish can round the lugs and blur factory finishing, which reduces the watch’s appeal to serious buyers.
Getting the Timing Right
There’s no universal rule that says you should always sell before or always sell after a new model release. The right decision depends on your specific watch, the brand’s track record with updates and the health of the secondary market.
What you can do is stay informed, keep an eye on secondary market pricing for your reference and talk to a trusted dealer who handles your brand every day. Armed with that information, you’ll be in a strong position to sell at the right moment.
If you’d like to find out what your watch is worth today, the team at The Watch Exchange London offers free expert valuations at our Burlington Arcade store in Mayfair. We’ll walk you through how we’ve arrived at our figure, and if you choose to sell, payment goes directly to your bank within 60 minutes.
