The luxury watch market is worth tens of billions, but pinning down an exact figure depends on who’s counting and what they’re including. Market research firms put the global luxury watch market somewhere between $30 billion and $80 billion, and the spread is that wide because each one defines “luxury” differently. Some include quartz fashion watches above a certain price point. Others focus purely on mechanical timepieces from traditional Swiss and European manufacturers.
What’s less debatable is the scale. This is a massive global industry, and it’s still growing. Here’s how analysts, brands and dealers actually measure it.
Swiss Exports: The Industry’s Core Benchmark
The most reliable baseline for the luxury watch market comes from the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry (FH), which publishes detailed export data every year. Swiss brands dominate the high end of the market, and their export figures are the closest thing the industry has to a single, trusted number.
In 2025, Swiss watch exports totalled CHF 25.6 billion (roughly £24 billion). That was a decline of 1.7% compared to 2024, marking the second consecutive year of contraction after record highs in 2022 and 2023. The dip was mainly driven by weaker demand from China and Hong Kong, while the US market, now the single largest destination for Swiss watches at 17% of total exports, held steady.
It’s important to note that these are export prices, not what consumers pay at retail. The final price tag in a boutique or at an authorised dealer will be significantly higher once distributor and retailer margins are added.
What the Market Research Says
Beyond Swiss exports, various research firms attempt to size the full global luxury watch market, including non-Swiss brands and all price tiers above a set threshold.
Estimates for 2025 range from around $33 billion at the conservative end to close to $80 billion at the top. The variation comes down to methodology. A report that includes brands like TAG Heuer and Longines alongside Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet will produce a different number from one that only counts mechanical watches priced above $5,000.
What the reports do agree on is the growth trajectory. Most project a compound annual growth rate of between 4% and 6% through the end of the decade, driven by rising demand in North America, continued interest from younger buyers, and a growing culture of watches as collectible assets. Some firms forecast the market will exceed $100 billion by the mid-2030s, though those projections should be taken with a pinch of salt.
The Pre-Owned Market Is Closing the Gap
One of the biggest stories in luxury watches over the past few years has been the explosive growth of the secondary market. Pre-owned luxury watches were valued at roughly $25-29 billion in 2024, and that figure is growing faster than the primary market.
This isn’t just about people flipping watches for profit. Certified Pre-Owned (CPO) programmes from brands like Rolex, Audemars Piguet and Cartier have brought legitimacy to the second-hand space. Plus, the rise of reputable, 3rd party professional buyers like Watch Exchange London have given more options to sellers, and additionally strengthened the market. For brands that hold their value well, the secondary market acts as proof that demand extends well beyond the initial sale.
Industry forecasts suggest the pre-owned market could match or even overtake the primary market within the next decade.
What Actually Drives a Watch’s Value?
Market-level numbers are one thing, but the luxury watch market is really valued watch by watch. At the individual level, several factors determine how much a timepiece is worth, and professional buyers weigh each one carefully when making offers.
- Brand is the single biggest factor. Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet consistently command the highest prices and the strongest resale values. These three brands alone account for a disproportionate share of the secondary market’s total volume.
- Scarcity matters enormously. Limited production runs, discontinued references and models with long waiting lists at authorised dealers will almost always trade at a premium. It’s simple supply and demand, but it plays out in extreme ways in this industry. A stainless steel Patek Philippe Nautilus or a Rolex Daytona in ceramic can trade for double retail or more.
- Condition and completeness also play a major role. A watch in excellent condition with its original box, papers and warranty card will be worth meaningfully more than the same reference without them. This is especially true for vintage pieces, where provenance can add thousands to the price.
- Complications and materials round out the picture. Watches with mechanical complications like perpetual calendars, minute repeaters or tourbillons represent the pinnacle of the craft, and they’re priced accordingly. Similarly, cases in precious metals or proprietary alloys tend to appreciate differently from steel models, though steel can sometimes outperform gold on the secondary market for high-demand references.
A Polarised Market
One trend that’s become clear in 2025 and 2026 is that the luxury watch market is increasingly polarised. At the top end, watches priced above CHF 3,000 at export level continue to drive the vast majority of total value. But the volume end of the market, watches below that threshold, has been declining for years, squeezed by competition from smartwatches and changing consumer habits.
The brands that are thriving tend to be the ones with strong identities, limited supply and genuine horological credibility. Independent watchmakers like F.P. Journe, MB&F and H. Moser & Cie have seen surging interest from collectors who want something different from the usual names. Meanwhile, some mid-tier Swiss brands have struggled as buyers move either up towards true luxury or down towards Apple Watches and Garmin.
For anyone thinking about why some watches appreciate more than others, this polarisation is a big part of the answer. The market rewards exclusivity and craftsmanship, and it punishes anything that feels mass-produced.
What This Means for Watch Owners
If you own a luxury watch from a respected brand, the market fundamentals are working in your favour. The overall industry continues to grow, the pre-owned market is more liquid and transparent than ever, and demand for quality timepieces from the right makers shows no signs of fading.
That said, the market isn’t a one-way bet. Values can fluctuate based on economic conditions, brand strategy and collector trends. The best approach is to stay informed, keep your watch well maintained, and sell when the timing works for you.
If you’d like to know what your watch is worth right now, the team at Watch Exchange London can help. Come in for a free valuation and we’ll give you an honest, up-to-date assessment based on current market conditions.
